According to @QCompounding, J.P. Morgan’s Guide to the Markets shows the S&P 500 has recovered to new highs after every bear market, with roughly 73% of years since 1980 ending positive despite an average intra-year drawdown around 14% (source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Guide to the Markets). For equity index traders, this historical resilience supports systematic dip-buying and staying invested after major drawdowns as forward returns have historically skewed positive following bear markets (source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Guide to the Markets). For crypto traders, rising co-movement means S&P 500 recoveries often align with BTC and ETH strength, as the BTC-equity 90-day correlation climbed above 0.4 during 2020-2022 risk cycles (source: International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Note 2022; Bank for International Settlements, Bulletin 2022).

According to @QCompounding, historical evidence in J.P. Morgan’s Guide to the Markets shows starting equity valuations have strong explanatory power for subsequent 10-year returns but weak predictive power for 1-year outcomes. Source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets. For trading, use valuation metrics like S&P 500 forward P/E and Shiller CAPE to set long-horizon return expectations and adjust strategic allocation, rather than to time short-term entries and exits. Source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets. Crypto traders can mirror this by treating on-chain valuation gauges such as BTC’s MVRV and the NVT ratio as cycle indicators rather than daily signals. Source: Glassnode Insights.

According to @QCompounding, J.P. Morgan's Guide to the Markets indicates the S&P 500 is more concentrated than ever, meaning index returns are driven by a smaller set of mega-cap leaders and sensitivity to single-stock moves is elevated (source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets; @QCompounding). For traders, high concentration aligns with weaker market breadth, so cap-weighted S&P 500 exposure becomes more dependent on the top constituents relative to the equal-weight benchmark (source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets). This top-heaviness raises the importance of monitoring the cap-weight versus equal-weight spread and top-10 index weights as practical risk indicators for hedging and position sizing (source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets). Because equity risk increasingly transmits to crypto, the IMF documents stronger co-movement between crypto assets and U.S. equities during risk-off regimes, making equity breadth a relevant macro signal for BTC and ETH traders (source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, 2022).

According to @QCompounding, J.P. Morgan’s Guide to the Markets shows that the top 10 U.S. stocks by market cap change markedly over time, underscoring persistent leadership rotation and the low durability of current mega-cap leaders (source: J.P. Morgan, Guide to the Markets, as cited by @QCompounding). For trading, the historical turnover supports systematic portfolio rebalancing and sector rotation strategies to manage concentration risk rather than assuming today’s winners will persist (source: J.P. Morgan, Guide to the Markets). Equity leadership shifts can influence broader risk appetite that has been increasingly correlated with crypto returns, making breadth and rotation useful context for BTC risk management in multi-asset portfolios (source: International Monetary Fund analysis on rising stock–crypto correlations).